Gridlock Threatens Airport Access and Regional Economy

Traffic Expected to Overwhelm Planned Transportation Improvements

Dulles, VA, October 28, 2005 - The Washington metro region's inadequate highway system is becoming a major threat to our regional economy. That is the principal conclusion to come from the first phase of a Washington Dulles International Airport access study released today by the Washington Airports Task Force (WATF). The WATF is a public/private sector partnership that works to put in place the aviation and aviation related infrastructure required to sustain the prosperity of the region and its neighboring states.

"This report documents a simple fact," Leo Schefer, President WATF, said. "The region's surface transportation plan is woefully short of capacity to meet current, let alone future demand. Transportation is the lubricant that enables the economy to function. If prompt remedial action is not taken, gridlock will lead to economic decline within a decade. Indeed, the symptoms are already here," he added.

"Virtually no one travels for the sake of traveling. We all travel for the activity at the end of the trip - work, leisure, education, shopping, and just plain going about our daily activities. But it's those activities that collectively form the economy, create the jobs and generate the prosperity," Schefer said. "If the transportation fails, so will the economy," he added.

Region-wide, metro jurisdictions are planning only a 12% increase in highway capacity to meet a projected 36% increase in demand. Trip times to Washington Dulles from all parts of the region and neighboring states will increase substantially and become less predictable, the report found.

As Dulles Airport serves the entire region, the WATF study results also measure the effectiveness of regional transportation plans. "The overall conclusion is inescapable," the report states. "The highway and transit improvements approved by the region's jurisdictions fall well short of the capacity improvements required to meet the land use plans of those same jurisdictions. Consequently, congestion on the region's highways can be expected to get significantly worse," it concludes.

The study was triggered by the rapidly increasing trip time to reach Dulles from different parts of the region. The report documents the rapid growth of congestion over the last five years on roads in the neighborhood of Dulles Airport and projects the future demand for travel between the Dulles neighborhood and other parts of the metro region.

Modern employers serve world markets and locate where they have good access to air service. The airport's Access Road helps travelers and shippers coming to Dulles from the east. Roughly one-third of all the metro region's jobs are within 45 minutes of the airport terminal, a figure that would reduce to less than one in five without the Access Road, the report found.

Access to Washington Dulles is just as critical to the economies of neighboring states as it is to our local economy. So whether it's mobility within the region or broad regional access to Washington Dulles, economies will suffer if we do not create an efficient, functioning surface transportation system, the report states.

Some companies already are expanding elsewhere or declining to come here because of the stress placed on employees and the inefficiencies created by our traffic congestion. Also, what happens when federal agencies decide they can cut costs and provide a better working environment elsewhere, the report asks.

The WATF ground access study is being conducted in three phases: Phase 1, published today, assessed the demand for travel between various points in the National Capital region and cities in surrounding states. The WATF found that unlike sea and airports, few, if any, surface transportation plans are based upon an assessment of the demand to be served. "When the demand step is missed, there is no clear understanding of why new and improved highways are required. Consequently, the WATF felt it was important to establish a foundation based upon the transportation demand created by the region's land use plans," the report notes.

The study examined current demand and demand in 2030 - the region's current planning timeframe. The assessment of trip demand was based upon the region's projected land uses and was made using the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) regional transportation model. Modeling and transportation consulting services were provided to the WATF by William G. Allen, Jr., P.E.

The study found that trips to Dulles from the region are expected to more than double by 2030. The study also found that only one in every five vehicles on roads in the Dulles neighborhood relate to the airport. "With the exception of the airport's dedicated Access Road, airport trips thus form only a very small portion of the traffic on highways used to reach the airport from other parts of the region," the report states.

Within the Dulles neighborhood, the report found that traffic demand is expected to increase nearly three times as fast as highway capacity, jobs are expected to double, and three more households are expected to be added for every four that exist today. Highway users will experience nearly three times the hours of delay they face today. Gridlock will exist on more than half the major roads during the peak travel hours, increasing trip time and uncertainty, the report states.

Approximately six percent of the traffic in the general Dulles area is diverting onto neighborhood roads today in order to avoid congestion on major arterials. "Six percent of the traffic from major arterials is a significant burden to place on such local roads," the report notes.

The study calibrated the accuracy of the regional transportation model by comparing its projections for 2005 with the actual traffic conditions found by a Skycomp aerial survey in 2003.

"The airports are in good shape to serve the region's growing needs, but the roads aren't," Schefer said. "The situation is much worse than many of us realized. The region as a whole is quite literally facing a tsunami of traffic, and we are not preparing for it." But there is light at the end of the tunnel. Some Phase 1 data clearly shows that the problems can be solved. In Phase 2, we'll look for solutions - a much happier task," Schefer said.